Football Betting

Hamlin seeking third straight win at Pocono

Autoracing Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - Long Pond, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, August 1. Race: Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500. Site: Pocono Raceway. Track: 2.5-mile triangle. Start time: 1:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles: 500. 2009 winner: Denny Hamlin. Television: ESPN. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN) /SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

Sprint Cup Series teams travel to Pocono Raceway for the second time within the past two months. If there is one driver who's looking forward to returning to Pocono the most, it's Denny Hamlin.

Pocono has been Hamlin's house lately. He won here one year ago and then again in June. If he wins Sunday's 500-mile race, he will become the third driver to score three consecutive victories at Pocono. Tim Richmond accomplished the feat from 1986-87, and Bobby Allison turned the trick from 1982-83.

Hamlin, currently third in points, is tied with Jimmie Johnson for most victories so far this season with five.

The driver with the most wins after the September 11 race in Richmond, VA will enter the championship Chase in the first seed. All 12 drivers who qualify for the playoffs -- the last 10 events of the season -- will have their point totals adjusted to 5,000. Each driver will then have 10 bonus points added for every race he won during the 26-event regular season.

"It's good that we're going back in a relatively close time frame; obviously, we run really well there," Hamlin said. "In my mind, we have a lot of really good tracks coming up. A lot of tracks that we just won at we're getting ready to go back to. We need to get two more wins I feel like before the Chase starts to kind of solidify where we will be bonus-points wise when we get to the Chase."

Hamlin is tied with Jeff Gordon, Rusty Wallace, Darrell Waltrip and Richmond for second most wins at Pocono with four. Bill Elliott holds the track record with five victories. Hamlin's first two wins at Pocono came during rookie season in 2006.

The battle for the top-12 spots in the Chase remains tight with six races to go before it begins. Heading into Pocono, 283 points separate eighth-place Matt Kenseth from 17th-place Kasey Kahne.

Clint Bowyer currently holds the 12th position, while 13th-place Mark Martin is 62 points behind Bowyer. Last year, Martin finished second in points and scored five victories. The 51-year-old driver has yet to win in 2010.

After winning the Brickyard 400 last Sunday, Jamie McMurray kept his Chase hopes alive, as he advanced two positions in the standings to 16th. McMurray, who became the third driver to win both the Daytona 500 and the 400-mile race at Indianapolis in the same season, is now 151 points out of 12th-place.

"Everyone wants to make the Chase," McMurray said. "Getting to win the Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400 means more to me this year than making the Chase. This year or in 10 years, the guy that won that race one time everybody will talk about. The guy that finished third in the points, nobody cares. I would really like to be in the Chase, but I have no focus on that at all."

Pocono, dubbed "The Tricky Triangle," is one of the most unique tracks on the Cup schedule with its 2.5-mile triangular shape.

Though Indianapolis has a rectangular-shaped layout, Pocono somewhat resembles Indy, with both tracks having relatively flat banking. The banking in each of Indy's four turns is nine degrees, whereas Pocono's corners vary from six to 14 degrees.

The July race at Pocono used to run prior to Indianapolis until 2007. Now, Indy is scheduled one week before Pocono.

"It used to be that if you ran good at Pocono, then you had a good shot at running good at Indy," driver/owner Tony Stewart said. "I don't know if it's still correlated the last couple years with the new car. The thing about Indy is that it's got a couple little bumps here and there, but when you go to Pocono, it's rough and bumpy. The setups are quite a bit different now."

Forty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500.


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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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