Hurricanes and Wolf Pack meet for first time
NCAA Football Betting Lines
12/27/2006 - Boise, ID (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Winners of their last two bowl appearances, the Nevada Wolf Pack try to bring an end to a torturous 2006 campaign for the Miami Hurricanes in the 10th Annual MPC Computers Bowl from Bronco Stadium in Boise, Idaho.
The Pack, who won last season's Hawaii Bowl with an exciting 49-48 overtime decision versus UCF, has had to play second-fiddle to undefeated Boise State in the Western Athletic Conference this season, even though Nevada was the preseason pick to take the league title. The Wolf Pack started the campaign on a down note however, immediately coming out with a 28-19 conference loss to Fresno State on the first of September. Eight days later there was a 52-21 blowout defeat at the hands of Arizona State, so from then on the squad was having to battle back to respectability. Eight victories over the next nine outings, with the only setback being a 41-34 decision versus Hawaii on the road, meant the Pack was back in business. The squad was crushed in the regular season finale by the aforementioned Broncos, 38-7, but they still made it to their seventh bowl all-time, after going 3-3 since the 1948 Salad Bowl.
As for the Hurricanes, the winds blew extremely fierce in the Sunshine State this year as Miami struggled to become bowl eligible at 6-6. A season- opening loss to Florida State by a field goal (13-10) was only the tip of the iceberg as the program at one point dropped four straight decisions versus ACC opponents (Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Maryland and Virginia). A repulsive display of aggression in the meeting with Florida International, a game that Miami won 35-0, only made it more clear that a change was needed for the squad. Unfortunately, the fall guy became head coach Larry Coker who, after winning a national championship in his first season and becoming the first head coach to win his first 24 games since Walter Camp in 1888-89, gracefully stepped aside but will still be on the sidelines for this event. Miami, which is 18-14 since first playing in the postseason in the 1933 Palm Festival against Manhattan College, lost a bout with LSU in last year's Peach Bowl by a final of 40-3.
As far as the all-time series between these two programs is concerned, this is the first-ever meeting as the Hurricanes, who will have a new head coach in former defensive coordinator Randy Shannon next year, take part in the postseason for the ninth straight year.
As if having a shaky offense were not trouble enough heading into the postseason, Coker and Co. are now having to run the unit without former offensive coordinator Rich Olson who took a position with Arizona State, which means Todd Berry will now be sorting out the confusion for the unit. Kirby Freeman got the call at signal-caller in the team's regular season finale, but he's far from the sort of polished quarterback that this program is used to seeing. He has completed just 53.9 percent of his pass attempts and has more completions to the competition (seven) than he does touchdowns (five). Lance Leggett was second on the team in receptions with 37 for 581 yards and four TDs for a team that ranked eighth in the conference and 88th among the 199 Division I-A programs in scoring with just 19.5 ppg this year. Take out the combined 86 points tallied against Florida A&M and FIU and this squad struggled tremendously. Averaging 4.9 yards per carry, Javarris James is the top running back Miami has to turn to with his 767 yards and four scores pacing the group.
Despite the offense being rather fragile this season, the Miami defense continued to dominate opponents, allowing more than 17 points just twice to Louisville and Georgia Tech. The run defense was especially stifling, allowing more than 100 yards just once this year as it gave up 132 yards to Virginia, although Miami still matched a season high with five sacks and made a total of 12 stops behind the line of scrimmage in that meeting with the Cavaliers. Permitting just 66 ypg on the ground, not only were the Hurricanes first in the ACC, they were also third in the nation behind only Michigan and Texas. In terms of total defense, Miami was second in the league and fifth in the country with only 252.1 ypg allowed. However, those minimal yards still kept the team from being the best in the ACC at holding scores down, ranking fourth in the conference with 15.1 ppg allowed. That number had the team ranked 14th nationally, which goes to show just how tough the rest of the conference was in that area. Placing third in the team in total tackles was Calais Campbell with 49 stops, but he was first with 20 TFLs, 10 sacks and three forced fumbles.
Heading into the Boise State matchup, the Wolf Pack had scored no less than 19 points in any one game and had produced at least 42 points in each of the previous four outings, but the trend failed to stand up against the Broncos. As a result, Nevada finished fourth in the conference in rushing with 176.8 ypg and sixth in passing with 185.8 ypg. The scoring offense checked in with 30.1 ppg, which was 19th in the nation this season, but compared to the rest of the WAC it was simply average because the league also includes Hawaii and New Mexico State, which scored more than Nevada, along with BSU obviously. Jeff Rowe carried a lot of the weight for the Pack this season as he completed 64.7 percent of his passes for 16 touchdowns and seven picks. His favorite target continued to be Caleb Spencer as the All-WAC Second Team choice collected 52 passes for 536 yards and a pair of scores. However, when it came to scoring, none was better than Mike McCoy who turned nine of his 21 grabs into TDs. Coming out of the backfield Robert Hubbard took most of the hits to finish with 936 yards and six scores, but in less than half the carries Luke Lippincott picked up a team-high nine touchdowns.
Except for the expected setbacks to Hawaii and Boise State, as well as the poor effort in the Arizona State meeting, the defense kept the Wolf Pack competitive every time they hit the field. Five opponents were held to a touchdown or less, with Utah State and Louisiana Tech being held scoreless in back-to-back meetings in November. Despite the lapses against Hawaii, ASU and Boise State, Nevada still had enough left in the tank to rank second in the league in scoring defense with 19 ppg allowed. Having to play so many conference games against opponents who had no reservations about throwing the ball down after down, it is a little surprising that the pass defense for the Pack played as well as it did, holding foes to just 190.7 ypg to rank first in the WAC and 45th nationally. A strong push up front started the process as Nevada ranked first in the league with 2.75 sacks per game and J.J. Milan earning all- conference honors as he picked up 9.5 sacks by himself. Joe Garcia and Nick Hawthrone locked down the secondary with a combined 10 interceptions, the latter scoring the only points of the game versus Boise State with a 45-yard return of an INT for a score.
One has to wonder how juiced the Hurricanes will be to send Coker out on a high note. Perhaps all the distractions and off-the-field issues have finally caught up to the once proud program, which is why Nevada could sneak out with the win.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Nevada 17, Miami-Florida 13
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.