Trucks make inaugural visit to Pocono
Autoracing Betting Lines
07/27/2010 - Long Pond, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Camping World Truck. Date: Saturday, July 31. Race: Pocono Mountains 125. Site: Pocono Raceway. Track: 2.5-mile triangle. Start time: 1:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 50. Miles: 125. Television: SPEED. Radio: Motor Racing Network(MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.
The Camping World Truck Series will compete at Pocono Raceway for the first time this weekend. The series' inaugural stop at Pocono marks the final track currently hosting a Sprint Cup race at which trucks have yet to compete.
This will not be the first time the series competes in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Truck teams used to run at the now defunct Nazareth Speedway in Nazareth, PA from 1996-2001.
Saturday's race at the 2.5-mile Pocono track is scheduled to be 125 miles in length, which means it's a 50-lap shootout.
"I think adding Pocono is great for the series, and by making it a 50-lap race, you are sure to see a lot of action," said four-time and defending series champion Ron Hornaday. "I know that going down in to turn one, you better have a good spot, because we will probably be four or five wide."
Hornaday has previous experience at Pocono, with two Cup starts here during the 2001 season, when he drove the No.14 car for team owner A.J. Foyt.
Last Friday, Hornaday ended a 22-race winless streak at O'Reilly Raceway Park at Indianapolis. Hornaday recorded his 46th career truck victory, but his first since August 1, 2009 at Nashville. He currently is fourth in points (-212).
Todd Bodine is the current leader, holding a 177-point advantage over Aric Almirola. Bodine is another driver who has previous experience at Pocono.
"I think you're going to see a heck of a race," Bodine said. "I know everybody is saying that. The way the trucks are and the drafting that's involved, the way Pocono is, long straightaways with a little bit slower corner, drafting is going to be very large, it's going to be critical.
"I think a lot of the veteran drivers like myself and [Mike] Skinner and Hornaday, guys that have competed there in the Cup Series, we're going to have a little advantage for a while. But I think that the guys in the Truck Series are good enough and the teams are good enough that they're going to catch up."
Three Sprint Cup regulars -- Denny Hamlin, Kasey Kahne and Elliott Sadler -- also will compete in the truck race at Pocono.
Kahne is driving the No.18 Toyota for Kyle Busch Motorsports. Busch will be in Iowa on Saturday for the Nationwide race there. Kahne is undefeated in two career truck starts. He won the last two races of the 2004 season -- Darlington and Homestead.
"Kyle and I had been talking about it for a while, and I told him I was interested in running a truck race or two for KBM this year," Kahne said. "He had another obligation with the NASCAR Nationwide Series race on Saturday, so he asked if I could race his truck. It's a great opportunity for me to come back to the series and compete with really good equipment. I've watched Kyle put the team together, and it's really been impressive how well they've done this year as a first-year team."
The format for truck qualifying at Pocono will be considerably different. The qualifying order is set by inverting the times from Friday's final practice session. Trucks are released in approximately 25-second increments, and drafting is prohibited.
Thirty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for Pocono Mountains 125.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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